21/01/2024
·
16:30
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-1
2nd Score
0-1
Sambenedettese vs Avezzano Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
57%
Over
43%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
No
54%
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2-3
45%
4-5
16%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
11%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 57% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
43%
Home Win
40%
26%
Draw
29%
31%
Away Win
31%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Sambenedettese v Avezzano — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Sambenedettese
The Market 44%
Head to Head
AWAY
Avezzano
The Market 34%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-48% /
-48%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-100%
/
+21%
50%
Ball Possession
50%
11
Total Shots
10
5
Shots on Target
3
3
Corners
5
314 · 75%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
298 · 73%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Sambenedettese vs Avezzano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Sambenedettese beat Avezzano 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sambenedettese as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.
What was the final score of Sambenedettese vs Avezzano?
Sambenedettese 3-1 Avezzano in the Italy - Serie D on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Sambenedettese vs Avezzano?
Before kick-off our model rated a Sambenedettese win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Sambenedettese 43%, draw 26%, Avezzano 31%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sambenedettese) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Sambenedettese)
✗ Under 2.5
✗ BTTS No
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İTD
More Italy - Serie D
21 Jan 2024