21/01/2024
·
16:30
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-0
2nd Score
0-1
Trastevere Calcio vs Ardea Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
57%
Over
43%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2-3
40%
4-5
20%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
17%
2/X
5%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 57% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
39%
Home Win
27%
27%
Draw
29%
34%
Away Win
44%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Trastevere Calcio v Ardea — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Trastevere Calcio
The Market 30%
Head to Head
AWAY
Ardea
The Market 48%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
49%
Ball Possession
51%
13
Total Shots
11
5
Shots on Target
4
6
Corners
6
292 · 73%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
398 · 79%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Trastevere Calcio vs Ardea
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Trastevere Calcio squeezed past Ardea 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.
Our pre-match split (39% / 27% / 34%) promised a tight game; Trastevere Calcio found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.
What was the final score of Trastevere Calcio vs Ardea?
Trastevere Calcio 2-1 Ardea in the Italy - Serie D on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Trastevere Calcio vs Ardea?
Before kick-off our model rated a Trastevere Calcio win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Trastevere Calcio 39%, draw 27%, Ardea 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Trastevere Calcio) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Trastevere Calcio)
✗ Under 2.5
✗ BTTS No
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İTD
More Italy - Serie D
21 Jan 2024