Villa dAlme vs Castellanzese Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Villa dAlme v Castellanzese — Team-Based Signals
Villa dAlme 3-2 Castellanzese — Actual Match Statistics
Villa dAlme edged past Castellanzese 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Villa dAlme as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Villa dAlme had 45% of the ball to Castellanzese's 55%, shots finished 16-9.
What was the final score of Villa dAlme vs Castellanzese?
Villa dAlme 3-2 Castellanzese in the Italy - Serie D on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Villa dAlme vs Castellanzese?
Before kick-off our model rated a Villa dAlme win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Villa dAlme 49%, draw 26%, Castellanzese 25%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Villa dAlme), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.