Villa dAlme 3-2 Castellanzese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie D, 21 Jan 2024

📅21/01/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.18
Draw
26%
6.26
Away
25%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under
43%
Over Pick
57%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Total Goals
0-1
21%
2-3
42%
4-5
22%
6+
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
14%
X/2
7%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
13%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
49%
Home Win
80%
-31.7pp
26%
Draw
13%
+13.4pp
25%
Away Win
7%
+18.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Villa dAlme The Market 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Castellanzese The Market 9%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
510 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 215 · 68%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Villa dAlme
3-2
AWAY Castellanzese
45% Ball Possession 55%
16 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
POST-MATCH Villa dAlme vs Castellanzese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Villa dAlme edged past Castellanzese 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Villa dAlme as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Villa dAlme had 45% of the ball to Castellanzese's 55%, shots finished 16-9.

What was the final score of Villa dAlme vs Castellanzese?

Villa dAlme 3-2 Castellanzese in the Italy - Serie D on 21/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Villa dAlme vs Castellanzese?

Before kick-off our model rated a Villa dAlme win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Villa dAlme 49%, draw 26%, Castellanzese 25%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Villa dAlme), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Villa dAlme) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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