Atletico Madrid vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Atletico Madrid v Bayer Leverkusen — Team-Based Signals
Atletico Madrid vs Bayer Leverkusen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Atletico Madrid 2-1 Bayer Leverkusen — Actual Match Statistics
Atletico Madrid edged past Bayer Leverkusen 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Atletico Madrid as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.
On the day, Atletico Madrid had 30% of the ball to Bayer Leverkusen's 70%, shots finished 5-13, expected goals 0.77 to 0.82.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Atletico Madrid and 1.33 for Bayer Leverkusen.
What was the final score of Atletico Madrid vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Atletico Madrid 2-1 Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League on 21/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Atletico Madrid vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Atletico Madrid 47%, draw 26%, Bayer Leverkusen 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Madrid), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.