Galatasaray 1-1 Atletico Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 21 Jan 2026

📅21/01/2026 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.94
Draw
21%
3.45
Away
48%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under
39%
2.21
Over Pick
61%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.53
No
40%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1
22%
4.37
2-3
39%
1.88
4-5
27%
2.88
6+
12%
8.28
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.73
1/2
8%
22.7
1/X
7%
13.1
X/1
10%
7.23
X/2
16%
5.23
X/X
7%
5.5
2/1
8%
29.5
2/2
24%
2.86
2/X
6%
12.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 29.5 — our 8% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 61%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
31%
Home Win
30%
+1.2pp
21%
Draw
25%
-4.6pp
48%
Away Win
45%
+3.5pp
39%
Under 2.5
41%
-2.2pp
61%
Over 2.5
59%
+2.2pp
60%
BTTS Yes
61%
-1.5pp
40%
BTTS No
39%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Galatasaray The Market 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Madrid The Market 49%
+13% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
1.19/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.88/2.29
+38% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +38% / -28%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
320 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 421 · 81%
18.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.7
18.5 Crosses 14.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Galatasaray
0W-2D-3L
AWAY Atletico Madrid
0.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
375 Passes 516
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
25.11.2015 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 2-0 HT 1-0 Galatasaray Galatasaray ŞMP
15.09.2015 Galatasaray Galatasaray 0-2 HT 0-2 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid ŞMP
06.08.2014 Galatasaray Galatasaray 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid HAZ
25.02.2010 Galatasaray Galatasaray 1-2 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid AVL
18.02.2010 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 1-1 HT 1-0 Galatasaray Galatasaray AVL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Galatasaray
1-1
AWAY Atletico Madrid
46% Ball Possession 54%
7 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
368 Passes 444
83% Pass Accuracy 85%
POST-MATCH Galatasaray vs Atletico Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Galatasaray and Atletico Madrid couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico Madrid at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (60%) landed while over 2.5 goals (61%) missed.

On the day, Galatasaray had 46% of the ball to Atletico Madrid's 54%, shots finished 7-15.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Atletico Madrid led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.40 goals for Galatasaray and 1.40 for Atletico Madrid.

What was the final score of Galatasaray vs Atletico Madrid?

Galatasaray 1-1 Atletico Madrid in the Champions League on 21/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Galatasaray vs Atletico Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Galatasaray 31%, draw 21%, Atletico Madrid 48%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Atletico Madrid), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Madrid) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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