Karabağ 3-2 Eintracht Frankfurt — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 21 Jan 2026

📅21/01/2026 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.99
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
37%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under
41%
2.38
Over Pick
59%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.46
No
41%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1
21%
5.07
2-3
37%
1.97
4-5
29%
2.69
6+
13%
6.73
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.84
1/2
6%
21.4
1/X
7%
12.75
X/1
12%
7.69
X/2
12%
5.31
X/X
11%
5.78
2/1
12%
29.0
2/2
19%
2.72
2/X
6%
12.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 29.0 — our 12% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
39%
Home Win
30%
+9.1pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.1pp
37%
Away Win
45%
-8.1pp
41%
Under 2.5
38%
+3.3pp
59%
Over 2.5
62%
-3.3pp
59%
BTTS Yes
64%
-5.5pp
41%
BTTS No
36%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Karabağ The Market 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Eintracht Frankfurt The Market 49%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-49% / +133% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
351 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 378 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Karabağ
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Eintracht Frankfurt
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
29.08.2013 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 2-1 HT 1-0 Karabağ Karabağ AVL
22.08.2013 Karabağ Karabağ 0-2 HT 0-1 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt AVL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Karabağ
3-2
AWAY Eintracht Frankfurt
1.78 xG 1.21
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 1
515 Passes 345
89% Pass Accuracy 83%
23 Box Touches 12
16 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Karabağ vs Eintracht Frankfurt
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karabağ squeezed past Eintracht Frankfurt 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (39% / 24% / 37%) promised a tight game; Karabağ found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Karabağ had 58% of the ball to Eintracht Frankfurt's 42%, shots finished 11-8, expected goals 1.78 to 1.21.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Eintracht Frankfurt led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Karabağ and 2.00 for Eintracht Frankfurt.

What was the final score of Karabağ vs Eintracht Frankfurt?

Karabağ 3-2 Eintracht Frankfurt in the Champions League on 21/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Karabağ vs Eintracht Frankfurt?

Before kick-off our model rated a Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Karabağ 39%, draw 24%, Eintracht Frankfurt 37%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karabağ), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Karabağ) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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