Al Ain 2-1 Nasaf Qarshi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFC Sampiyonlar League, 21 Feb 2024

📅21/02/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.57
Draw
28%
3.72
Away
27%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.82
Over 2.5
49%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.96
No
47%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.16
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.72
6+ Goals
11%
15.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.03
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.45
X/1
14%
3.67
X/2
11%
10.7
X/X
16%
5.11
2/1
6%
24.45
2/2
10%
8.88
2/X
6%
17.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
59%
-14.1pp
28%
Draw
23%
+4.9pp
26%
Away Win
17%
+9.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
51%
+0.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
49%
-0.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
47%
+6.6pp
47%
BTTS No
53%
-6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Ain EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Nasaf Qarshi EU Bookmakers 21%
+3% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
1.79/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/0.97
+46% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / +9%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
456 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 75%
24.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.9
18.9 Crosses 26.6
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Ain
1W-2D-0L
AWAY Nasaf Qarshi
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
0.82 xG 0.21
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 6
366 Passes 272
80% Pass Accuracy 71%
7 Box Touches 7
17 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 4
14.02.2024 Nasaf Qarshi Nasaf Qarshi 0-0 HT 0-0 Al Ain Al Ain AŞMP
03.05.2016 Al Ain Al Ain 2-0 HT 1-0 Nasaf Qarshi Nasaf Qarshi AŞMP
19.04.2016 Nasaf Qarshi Nasaf Qarshi 1-1 HT 1-1 Al Ain Al Ain AŞMP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Ain
2-1
AWAY Nasaf Qarshi
1.38 xG 1.03
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 8
422 Passes 237
85% Pass Accuracy 71%
20 Box Touches 25
21 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Al Ain vs Nasaf Qarshi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Ain nicked a narrow win over Nasaf Qarshi 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Al Ain as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Al Ain had 59% of the ball to Nasaf Qarshi's 41%, shots finished 16-15, expected goals 1.38 to 1.03.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Al Ain had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Al Ain and 0.33 for Nasaf Qarshi.

What was the final score of Al Ain vs Nasaf Qarshi?

Al Ain 2-1 Nasaf Qarshi in the AFC Sampiyonlar League on 21/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Ain vs Nasaf Qarshi?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Ain win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Al Ain 45%, draw 28%, Nasaf Qarshi 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Ain), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Al Ain) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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