Adamstown Rosebuds 3-2 Valentine Phoenix — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 21 Feb 2025

📅21/02/2025 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
5.91
Draw
16%
5.15
Away
65%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
32%
Over 2.5
68%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.49
No
45%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
32%
6+ Goals
17%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
9%
1/X
4%
X/1
6%
X/2
18%
X/X
6%
2/1
6%
2/2
38%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
14%
+5.0pp
16%
Draw
16%
-0.1pp
65%
Away Win
70%
-4.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
63%
-7.8pp
45%
BTTS No
37%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Adamstown Rosebuds EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Valentine Phoenix EU Bookmakers 75%
-18% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
0.84/2.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.34/0.28
-21% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +150%
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 10
4 Corners 7
316 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 382 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.8 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Adamstown Rosebuds
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Valentine Phoenix
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 1
03.08.2024 Valentine Phoenix Valentine Phoenix 3-0 HT 0-0 Adamstown Rosebuds Adamstown Rosebuds AVNSW
09.03.2024 Adamstown Rosebuds Adamstown Rosebuds 0-3 HT 0-1 Valentine Phoenix Valentine Phoenix AVNPL
20.05.2023 Valentine Phoenix Valentine Phoenix 2-3 HT 0-0 Adamstown Rosebuds Adamstown Rosebuds AVNPL
05.03.2023 Adamstown Rosebuds Adamstown Rosebuds 0-1 HT 0-1 Valentine Phoenix Valentine Phoenix AVNPL
12.06.2022 Valentine Phoenix Valentine Phoenix 2-2 HT 0-0 Adamstown Rosebuds Adamstown Rosebuds AVNPL
19.03.2022 Adamstown Rosebuds Adamstown Rosebuds 1-4 HT 1-3 Valentine Phoenix Valentine Phoenix AVNPL
POST-MATCH Adamstown Rosebuds vs Valentine Phoenix
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Adamstown Rosebuds edged past Valentine Phoenix 3-2. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Valentine Phoenix at 65% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (68%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Valentine Phoenix led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Adamstown Rosebuds and 2.50 for Valentine Phoenix.

What was the final score of Adamstown Rosebuds vs Valentine Phoenix?

Adamstown Rosebuds 3-2 Valentine Phoenix in the Australia - National Premier League on 21/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Adamstown Rosebuds vs Valentine Phoenix?

Before kick-off our model rated an Valentine Phoenix win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Adamstown Rosebuds 19%, draw 16%, Valentine Phoenix 65%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Valentine Phoenix) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Valentine Phoenix) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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