Newcastle Jets 3-1 Brisbane Roar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 21 Feb 2025

📅21/02/2025 · 🕒11:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.12
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
36%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.43
Over 2.5
51%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.43
No
49%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
5.13
2-3 Goals
41%
1.96
4-5 Goals
24%
2.61
6+ Goals
11%
6.37
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.13 — our 24% vs market 14.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.97
1/2
6%
26.0
1/X
9%
11.85
X/1
12%
5.58
X/2
10%
6.95
X/X
8%
5.71
2/1
6%
21.7
2/2
20%
4.18
2/X
6%
12.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
43%
-2.1pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.6pp
36%
Away Win
32%
+3.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
38%
+11.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
62%
-11.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
66%
-14.5pp
49%
BTTS No
34%
+14.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newcastle Jets EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Brisbane Roar EU Bookmakers 36%
-11% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -4%
2.00/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.63
-10% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -2%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
380 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 391 · 81%
27.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.7
20.8 Crosses 18.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newcastle Jets
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Brisbane Roar
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.63 xG 1.54
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 8
412 Passes 398
86% Pass Accuracy 83%
22 Box Touches 31
16 Crosses 20
0 Yellow Cards 2
07.01.2025 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 0-1 HT 0-0 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
13.04.2024 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 0-2 HT 0-0 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
23.01.2024 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 3-1 HT 1-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
14.01.2024 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 3-2 HT 0-1 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
08.04.2023 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 3-0 HT 1-0 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets AVUS
27.01.2023 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 4-0 HT 0-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newcastle Jets
3-1
AWAY Brisbane Roar
2.12 xG 1.32
47% Ball Possession 53%
17 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
399 Passes 465
85% Pass Accuracy 88%
22 Box Touches 21
10 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Newcastle Jets vs Brisbane Roar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newcastle Jets saw off Brisbane Roar 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Our pre-match split (41% / 23% / 36%) promised a tight game; Newcastle Jets found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Newcastle Jets had 47% of the ball to Brisbane Roar's 53%, shots finished 17-12, expected goals 2.12 to 1.32.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newcastle Jets had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Newcastle Jets and 1.17 for Brisbane Roar.

What was the final score of Newcastle Jets vs Brisbane Roar?

Newcastle Jets 3-1 Brisbane Roar in the Australia - A-League on 21/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newcastle Jets vs Brisbane Roar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newcastle Jets win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Newcastle Jets 41%, draw 23%, Brisbane Roar 36%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Newcastle Jets), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Newcastle Jets) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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