Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-0 NK Varazdin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 21 Feb 2025

📅21/02/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
1.89
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
37%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.64
Over 2.5
46%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.99
No
54%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.47
2-3 Goals
42%
1.71
4-5 Goals
19%
4.26
6+ Goals
9%
22.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
10%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
13%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
49%
-11.7pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.0pp
37%
Away Win
24%
+12.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
57%
-3.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
43%
+3.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
46%
-0.1pp
54%
BTTS No
54%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 28%
-7% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +5%
1.28/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.11
-2% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +3%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
322 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 72%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
23.3 Crosses 15.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb
1W-4D-1L
AWAY NK Varazdin
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.98 xG 1.26
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
288 Passes 278
73% Pass Accuracy 71%
22 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
23.11.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-1 HT 0-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
01.09.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-1 HT 0-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
13.04.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 0-2 HT 0-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
02.02.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-0 HT 0-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
21.10.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 0-0 HT 0-0 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
04.08.2023 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 3-3 HT 0-2 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiva Zagreb
1-0
AWAY NK Varazdin
1.56 xG 0.54
63% Ball Possession 37%
18 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
328 Passes 154
76% Pass Accuracy 60%
24 Box Touches 14
26 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiva Zagreb nicked a narrow win over NK Varazdin 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (37% / 26% / 37%) promised a tight game; Lokomotiva Zagreb found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Lokomotiva Zagreb had 63% of the ball to NK Varazdin's 37%, shots finished 18-6, expected goals 1.56 to 0.54.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Lokomotiva Zagreb and 0.83 for NK Varazdin.

What was the final score of Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin?

Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-0 NK Varazdin in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 21/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lokomotiva Zagreb win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiva Zagreb 37%, draw 26%, NK Varazdin 37%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (37/26/37) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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