De Graafschap 5-1 AZ Alkmaar II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 21 Feb 2025

📅21/02/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.47
Draw
21%
4.34
Away
27%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.51
Over 2.5
56%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.63
No
48%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.11
2-3 Goals
39%
1.94
4-5 Goals
27%
2.55
6+ Goals
11%
6.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.76
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
15.8
X/1
19%
4.16
X/2
8%
12.6
X/X
6%
7.21
2/1
6%
19.0
2/2
13%
9.37
2/X
6%
17.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
64%
-12.0pp
21%
Draw
20%
+1.3pp
27%
Away Win
16%
+10.7pp
44%
Under 2.5
36%
+8.4pp
56%
Over 2.5
64%
-8.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.0pp
48%
BTTS No
43%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II EU Bookmakers 20%
-3% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +1%
1.83/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.62
-1% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
363 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 75%
31.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
25.2 Crosses 8.9
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME De Graafschap
3W-2D-1L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.33 xG 1.27
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
322 Passes 389
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
28 Box Touches 21
24 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 1
23.09.2024 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 2-2 HT 0-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
29.03.2024 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-1 HT 1-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
23.10.2023 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 3-0 HT 0-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
03.04.2023 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 0-1 HT 0-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
30.09.2022 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-0 HT 1-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
04.03.2022 De Graafschap De Graafschap 0-0 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME De Graafschap
5-1
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
3.30 xG 0.72
41% Ball Possession 59%
17 Total Shots 9
10 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 5
250 Passes 426
69% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 24
6 Crosses 10
POST-MATCH De Graafschap vs AZ Alkmaar II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

De Graafschap swept aside AZ Alkmaar II 5-1. Half-time: 3-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had De Graafschap as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, De Graafschap had 41% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar II's 59%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 3.30 to 0.72.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, De Graafschap had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for De Graafschap and 1.00 for AZ Alkmaar II.

What was the final score of De Graafschap vs AZ Alkmaar II?

De Graafschap 5-1 AZ Alkmaar II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 21/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for De Graafschap vs AZ Alkmaar II?

Before kick-off our model rated a De Graafschap win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split De Graafschap 52%, draw 21%, AZ Alkmaar II 27%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (De Graafschap), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (De Graafschap) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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