Dandenong Thunder 0-1 Heidelberg United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 21 Feb 2026

📅21/02/2026 · 🕒11:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 2nd Score 0-4
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.5
Draw
19%
3.72
Away
55%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.07
Over 2.5
53%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.66
No
55%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
47%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
25%
X/X
7%
2/1
4%
2/2
23%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
25%
+1.3pp
19%
Draw
23%
-4.2pp
55%
Away Win
52%
+2.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
56%
-11.1pp
55%
BTTS No
44%
+11.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dandenong Thunder EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Heidelberg United EU Bookmakers 56%
-4% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +6%
1.91/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.50/0.54
-17% / +50% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +89%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
284 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.6 Crosses 17.4
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dandenong Thunder
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Heidelberg United
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 7
4 Yellow Cards 2
13.06.2025 Heidelberg United Heidelberg United 2-0 HT 1-0 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder AVNPL
08.03.2025 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder 3-2 HT 0-1 Heidelberg United Heidelberg United AVNPL
31.05.2024 Heidelberg United Heidelberg United 2-0 HT 2-0 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder AVNPL
24.02.2024 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder 0-2 HT 0-1 Heidelberg United Heidelberg United AVNPL
20.05.2023 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder 2-1 HT 0-0 Heidelberg United Heidelberg United AVNPL
17.02.2023 Heidelberg United Heidelberg United 0-1 HT 0-1 Dandenong Thunder Dandenong Thunder AVNPL
POST-MATCH Dandenong Thunder vs Heidelberg United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heidelberg United nicked a narrow win over Dandenong Thunder 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Heidelberg United as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (55%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Dandenong Thunder and 1.50 for Heidelberg United.

What was the final score of Dandenong Thunder vs Heidelberg United?

Dandenong Thunder 0-1 Heidelberg United in the Australia - National Premier League on 21/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dandenong Thunder vs Heidelberg United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Heidelberg United win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Dandenong Thunder 26%, draw 19%, Heidelberg United 55%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Heidelberg United), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Heidelberg United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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