Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-1 Spartak Varna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 21 Feb 2026

📅21/02/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.53
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
20%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.67
Over 2.5
46%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.27
No
56%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
11%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
61%
-4.1pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.2pp
20%
Away Win
15%
+5.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
56%
-2.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+2.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
40%
+3.5pp
56%
BTTS No
60%
-3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiv Plovdiv EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Spartak Varna EU Bookmakers 18%
-7% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
1.66/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.49
-1% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -2%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
342 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 239 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiv Plovdiv
2W-0D-2L
AWAY Spartak Varna
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 3
30.08.2025 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna 1-2 HT 0-1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
07.04.2025 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-2 HT 0-2 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna BUL1
23.10.2024 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna 1-0 HT 0-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
28.04.2023 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3-1 HT 1-1 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1-1
AWAY Spartak Varna
67% Ball Possession 33%
14 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 2
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Spartak Varna couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lokomotiv Plovdiv had 67% of the ball to Spartak Varna's 33%, shots finished 14-5.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Lokomotiv Plovdiv and 1.25 for Spartak Varna.

What was the final score of Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna?

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-1 Spartak Varna in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 21/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lokomotiv Plovdiv win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiv Plovdiv 57%, draw 23%, Spartak Varna 20%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Lokomotiv Plovdiv), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lokomotiv Plovdiv) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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