Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv v Spartak Varna — Team-Based Signals
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings
3-1
HT 1-1
Spartak Varna
BUL1
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-1 Spartak Varna — Actual Match Statistics
Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Spartak Varna couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Lokomotiv Plovdiv had 67% of the ball to Spartak Varna's 33%, shots finished 14-5.
For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Lokomotiv Plovdiv and 1.25 for Spartak Varna.
What was the final score of Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna?
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-1 Spartak Varna in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 21/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna?
Before kick-off our model rated a Lokomotiv Plovdiv win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiv Plovdiv 57%, draw 23%, Spartak Varna 20%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Lokomotiv Plovdiv), BTTS No went the other way.