Augsburg 4-1 Greuther Fürth — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 21 Mar 2024

📅21/03/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.53
Draw
26%
4.34
Away
24%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.96
Over 2.5
58%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.46
No
46%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
7.09
2-3 Goals
38%
2.2
4-5 Goals
27%
2.45
6+ Goals
13%
4.78
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1.83
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
15.25
X/1
19%
4.19
X/2
7%
12.0
X/X
9%
7.53
2/1
9%
18.35
2/2
10%
7.54
2/X
8%
15.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
62%
-11.8pp
26%
Draw
20%
+5.5pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+6.2pp
42%
Under 2.5
30%
+12.2pp
58%
Over 2.5
70%
-12.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
64%
-11.0pp
46%
BTTS No
36%
+11.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Augsburg EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Greuther Fürth EU Bookmakers 21%
+23% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +52% / +52%
3.52/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.84/0.70
+80% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +142% / +143%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
379 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Augsburg
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Greuther Fürth
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.15 xG 0.27
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
282 Passes 254
76% Pass Accuracy 72%
20 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.05.2022 Augsburg Augsburg 2-1 HT 1-1 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL1
18.12.2021 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth 0-0 HT 0-0 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
18.05.2013 Augsburg Augsburg 3-1 HT 1-0 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL1
15.12.2012 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth 1-1 HT 0-1 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
08.04.2011 Augsburg Augsburg 0-0 HT 0-0 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL2
12.11.2010 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth 1-1 HT 1-1 Augsburg Augsburg AL2
POST-MATCH Augsburg vs Greuther Fürth
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Augsburg swept aside Greuther Fürth 4-1. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Augsburg as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Augsburg had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Augsburg and 0.67 for Greuther Fürth.

What was the final score of Augsburg vs Greuther Fürth?

Augsburg 4-1 Greuther Fürth in the Friendlies on 21/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Augsburg vs Greuther Fürth?

Before kick-off our model rated a Augsburg win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Augsburg 50%, draw 26%, Greuther Fürth 24%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Augsburg), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Augsburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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