Nürnberg 0-2 Ingolstadt — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 21 Mar 2024

Nürnberg
0-2 HT 0-1
Ingolstadt
📅21/03/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Friendlies – 2023/2024

Nürnberg vs Ingolstadt Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.61
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
33%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.33
Over 2.5
51%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.84
2-3 Goals
38%
1.93
4-5 Goals
24%
2.8
6+ Goals
12%
7.58
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.84 — our 26% vs market 15.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
58%
-14.7pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.6pp
33%
Away Win
19%
+14.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
39%
+10.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
61%
-10.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.4pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nürnberg v Ingolstadt — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nürnberg EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Ingolstadt EU Bookmakers 22%
-79% / -79% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +38% / +38%
1.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/0.87
-49% / -49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +96%
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
377 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 74%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Nürnberg vs Ingolstadt Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nürnberg
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Ingolstadt
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.21 xG 1.39
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
397 Passes 256
78% Pass Accuracy 71%
22 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
04.02.2022 Nürnberg Nürnberg 0-5 HT 0-3 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL2
22.08.2021 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 0-0 HT 0-0 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
11.07.2020 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 3-1 HT 0-0 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2P
07.07.2020 Nürnberg Nürnberg 2-0 HT 2-0 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL2P
09.08.2019 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 0-1 HT 0-0 Nürnberg Nürnberg AFK
15.04.2018 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 1-1 HT 0-0 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
POST-MATCH Nürnberg vs Ingolstadt
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ingolstadt beat Nürnberg 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Nürnberg at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Nürnberg and 1.50 for Ingolstadt.

What was the final score of Nürnberg vs Ingolstadt?

Nürnberg 0-2 Ingolstadt in the Friendlies on 21/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nürnberg vs Ingolstadt?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nürnberg win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Nürnberg 43%, draw 24%, Ingolstadt 33%. The final score 0-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Nürnberg) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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