Gor Mahia 2-1 Shabana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kenya - Premier League, 21 Mar 2026

📅21/03/2026 · 🕒16:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.76
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
17%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.59
Over 2.5
44%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.13
No
55%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
6%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
53%
+5.2pp
25%
Draw
28%
-2.7pp
17%
Away Win
19%
-2.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
59%
-3.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
41%
+3.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
43%
+2.4pp
55%
BTTS No
57%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gor Mahia EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Shabana EU Bookmakers 22%
+9% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
2.14/0.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.38
+52% / +87% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +57% / -22%
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
252 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gor Mahia
2W-2D-0L
AWAY Shabana
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 0.25
51% Ball Possession 49%
4 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 1
11.01.2026 Shabana Shabana 0-0 HT 0-0 Gor Mahia Gor Mahia KEN
04.05.2025 Shabana Shabana 0-1 HT 0-0 Gor Mahia Gor Mahia KEN
11.12.2024 Gor Mahia Gor Mahia 1-1 HT 0-0 Shabana Shabana KEN
11.05.2024 Gor Mahia Gor Mahia 1-0 HT 1-0 Shabana Shabana KEN
POST-MATCH Gor Mahia vs Shabana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gor Mahia edged past Shabana 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Gor Mahia as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Gor Mahia had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Gor Mahia and 0.25 for Shabana.

What was the final score of Gor Mahia vs Shabana?

Gor Mahia 2-1 Shabana in the Kenya - Premier League on 21/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gor Mahia vs Shabana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gor Mahia win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Gor Mahia 58%, draw 25%, Shabana 17%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gor Mahia) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gor Mahia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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