Memphis 901 1-2 Monterey Bay — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.92
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
28%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.03
Over 2.5
45%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.63
No
53%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.86
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals
20%
3.18
6+ Goals
12%
10.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.86 — our 30% vs market 20.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
48%
-0.4pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.7pp
28%
Away Win
27%
+1.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
45%
+9.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
55%
-9.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
57%
-10.3pp
53%
BTTS No
43%
+10.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Memphis 901 EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Monterey Bay EU Bookmakers 31%
-5% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +3%
1.49/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.49
+14% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / -8%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
360 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 77%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.1
18.0 Crosses 17.1
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Memphis 901
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Monterey Bay
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.22 xG 1.11
72% Ball Possession 28%
27 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 0
595 Passes 188
87% Pass Accuracy 69%
37 Box Touches 6
28 Crosses 3
2 Yellow Cards 1
10.09.2023 Memphis 901 Memphis 901 0-1 HT 0-1 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Memphis 901
1-2
AWAY Monterey Bay
1.44 xG 1.72
44% Ball Possession 56%
18 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 6
236 Passes 314
68% Pass Accuracy 73%
26 Box Touches 20
11 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Memphis 901 vs Monterey Bay
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monterey Bay edged past Memphis 901 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Memphis 901 at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Memphis 901 had 44% of the ball to Monterey Bay's 56%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 1.44 to 1.72.

What was the final score of Memphis 901 vs Monterey Bay?

Memphis 901 1-2 Monterey Bay in the USL Championship on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Memphis 901 vs Monterey Bay?

Before kick-off our model rated a Memphis 901 win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Memphis 901 48%, draw 24%, Monterey Bay 28%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Memphis 901) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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