Tampa Bay Rowdies 1-1 El Paso Locomotive — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.57
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
24%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.15
Over 2.5
46%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
4.16
2-3 Goals
42%
1.86
4-5 Goals
18%
3.04
6+ Goals
9%
9.52
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.16 — our 31% vs market 19.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
21%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
60%
-9.9pp
26%
Draw
22%
+3.8pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+6.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
43%
+11.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
57%
-11.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-7.1pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY El Paso Locomotive EU Bookmakers 21%
+4% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +7%
2.06/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.73
+29% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -23%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
374 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 76%
27.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
19.3 Crosses 12.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies
1W-1D-0L
AWAY El Paso Locomotive
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.06 xG 0.97
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
348 Passes 467
83% Pass Accuracy 88%
22 Box Touches 12
12 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 2
18.06.2023 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 1-1 HT 0-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
13.10.2022 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 3-1 HT 2-0 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tampa Bay Rowdies
1-1
AWAY El Paso Locomotive
2.26 xG 0.30
64% Ball Possession 36%
21 Total Shots 9
9 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
424 Passes 220
83% Pass Accuracy 75%
33 Box Touches 5
22 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Tampa Bay Rowdies vs El Paso Locomotive
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tampa Bay Rowdies and El Paso Locomotive couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Tampa Bay Rowdies at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Tampa Bay Rowdies had 64% of the ball to El Paso Locomotive's 36%, shots finished 21-9, expected goals 2.26 to 0.30.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Tampa Bay Rowdies had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Tampa Bay Rowdies and 1.00 for El Paso Locomotive.

What was the final score of Tampa Bay Rowdies vs El Paso Locomotive?

Tampa Bay Rowdies 1-1 El Paso Locomotive in the USL Championship on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tampa Bay Rowdies vs El Paso Locomotive?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tampa Bay Rowdies win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Tampa Bay Rowdies 50%, draw 26%, El Paso Locomotive 24%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Tampa Bay Rowdies), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tampa Bay Rowdies) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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