North Carolina 2-3 New Mexico United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 21 Apr 2024

North Carolina
2-3 HT 2-2
New Mexico United
📅21/04/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
USL Championship – 2024

North Carolina vs New Mexico United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.96
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
32%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.95
Over 2.5
49%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.68
No
48%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.56
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.37
6+ Goals
11%
12.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
11%
2/2
15%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
47%
-7.8pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.0pp
32%
Away Win
28%
+4.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.1pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

North Carolina v New Mexico United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME North Carolina EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY New Mexico United EU Bookmakers 31%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +2%
1.28/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.52
-43% / +53% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +12%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
359 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 77%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
18.5 Crosses 13.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.7
POST-MATCH North Carolina vs New Mexico United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New Mexico United edged past North Carolina 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (39% / 28% / 32%) promised a tight game; New Mexico United found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

What was the final score of North Carolina vs New Mexico United?

North Carolina 2-3 New Mexico United in the USL Championship on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for North Carolina vs New Mexico United?

Before kick-off our model rated a North Carolina win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split North Carolina 39%, draw 28%, New Mexico United 32%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (North Carolina), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (North Carolina) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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