Crawley Town 3-1 Exeter City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 21 Apr 2025

Crawley Town
3-1 HT 3-1
Exeter City
📅21/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - 1st Division – 2024/2025

Crawley Town vs Exeter City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.09
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
31%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.86
Over 2.5
45%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.75
No
53%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.08
2-3 Goals
37%
1.75
4-5 Goals
23%
3.51
6+ Goals
10%
14.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.08 — our 30% vs market 25.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.11
1/2
8%
33.0
1/X
5%
13.95
X/1
16%
4.9
X/2
10%
6.48
X/X
10%
4.88
2/1
6%
25.5
2/2
13%
4.73
2/X
11%
14.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
44%
-1.5pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.3pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+0.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.8pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Crawley Town v Exeter City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Crawley Town EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Exeter City EU Bookmakers 34%
-8% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +20%
1.34/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.20
-15% / -41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +19%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
313 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 71%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
14.6 Crosses 14.6
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.1

Crawley Town vs Exeter City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Crawley Town
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Exeter City
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.27 xG 1.23
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
266 Passes 272
66% Pass Accuracy 70%
17 Box Touches 23
12 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
29.12.2024 Exeter City Exeter City 4-4 HT 1-4 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN1
08.08.2023 Exeter City Exeter City 2-1 HT 0-1 Crawley Town Crawley Town İNLK
15.03.2022 Exeter City Exeter City 2-1 HT 2-1 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
19.10.2021 Crawley Town Crawley Town 1-3 HT 1-0 Exeter City Exeter City İN2
27.02.2021 Crawley Town Crawley Town 2-0 HT 0-0 Exeter City Exeter City İN2
20.10.2020 Exeter City Exeter City 2-1 HT 0-1 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2

Crawley Town 3-1 Exeter City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Crawley Town
3-1
AWAY Exeter City
2.47 xG 0.51
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 3
349 Passes 285
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
29 Box Touches 11
8 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Crawley Town vs Exeter City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Crawley Town saw off Exeter City 3-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Crawley Town as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Crawley Town had 54% of the ball to Exeter City's 46%, shots finished 15-5, expected goals 2.47 to 0.51.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Exeter City led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Crawley Town and 2.17 for Exeter City.

What was the final score of Crawley Town vs Exeter City?

Crawley Town 3-1 Exeter City in the England - 1st Division on 21/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crawley Town vs Exeter City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Crawley Town win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Crawley Town 42%, draw 27%, Exeter City 31%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Crawley Town) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Crawley Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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