Millwall 3-1 Norwich City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 21 Apr 2025

Millwall
3-1 HT 2-1
Norwich City
📅21/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
England - Championship – 2024/2025

Millwall vs Norwich City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.46
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
31%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
59%
1.75
Over
41%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.76
No
55%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
35%
2.9
2-3
39%
1.77
4-5
19%
3.86
6+
7%
17.3
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.9 — our 35% vs market 28.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.75
1/2
8%
31.0
1/X
8%
13.35
X/1
15%
5.52
X/2
12%
5.85
X/X
16%
4.38
2/1
9%
30.0
2/2
11%
4.09
2/X
6%
13.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 59% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
37%
+2.3pp
30%
Draw
28%
+1.7pp
31%
Away Win
35%
-4.0pp
59%
Under 2.5
53%
+5.4pp
41%
Over 2.5
47%
-5.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-8.0pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Millwall v Norwich City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Millwall EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Norwich City EU Bookmakers 38%
+5% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -3%
1.23/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.23
-6% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +6%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
266 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 378 · 80%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
21.8 Crosses 15.4
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.9

Millwall vs Norwich City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Millwall
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Norwich City
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.27 xG 1.18
38% Ball Possession 62%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
242 Passes 452
73% Pass Accuracy 84%
20 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
26.12.2024 Norwich City Norwich City 2-1 HT 2-0 Millwall Millwall İNCL
29.12.2023 Millwall Millwall 1-0 HT 1-0 Norwich City Norwich City İNCL
20.08.2023 Norwich City Norwich City 3-1 HT 1-0 Millwall Millwall İNCL
04.03.2023 Millwall Millwall 2-3 HT 1-1 Norwich City Norwich City İNCL
19.08.2022 Norwich City Norwich City 2-0 HT 0-0 Millwall Millwall İNCL
02.02.2021 Millwall Millwall 0-0 HT 0-0 Norwich City Norwich City İNCL

Millwall 3-1 Norwich City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Millwall
3-1
AWAY Norwich City
1.80 xG 0.39
42% Ball Possession 58%
16 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 4
242 Passes 383
73% Pass Accuracy 79%
32 Box Touches 10
25 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Millwall vs Norwich City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Millwall beat Norwich City 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Our pre-match split (39% / 30% / 31%) promised a tight game; Millwall found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Millwall had 42% of the ball to Norwich City's 58%, shots finished 16-4, expected goals 1.80 to 0.39.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Norwich City led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Millwall and 1.67 for Norwich City.

What was the final score of Millwall vs Norwich City?

Millwall 3-1 Norwich City in the England - Championship on 21/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Millwall vs Norwich City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Millwall win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Millwall 39%, draw 30%, Norwich City 31%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Millwall) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Millwall) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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