West Bromwich 1-3 Derby County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 21 Apr 2025

West Bromwich
1-3 HT 0-2
Derby County
📅21/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - Championship – 2024/2025

West Bromwich vs Derby County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.92
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
29%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
56%
1.56
Over
44%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.06
No
56%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2.38
2-3
40%
1.77
4-5
20%
4.85
6+
8%
28.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.78
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
5%
14.6
X/1
16%
4.36
X/2
12%
7.7
X/X
12%
3.97
2/1
7%
30.0
2/2
11%
6.63
2/X
7%
15.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 56% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
48%
-1.5pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.1pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+4.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
60%
-4.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
40%
+4.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.6pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

West Bromwich v Derby County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME West Bromwich EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Derby County EU Bookmakers 28%
+2% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -23%
1.51/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.36
-5% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -24%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
327 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 72%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
22.1 Crosses 18.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4

West Bromwich vs Derby County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME West Bromwich
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Derby County
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.72 xG 0.83
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
353 Passes 262
78% Pass Accuracy 68%
34 Box Touches 14
27 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.12.2024 Derby County Derby County 2-1 HT 1-0 West Bromwich West Bromwich İNCL
23.08.2022 Derby County Derby County 1-0 HT 1-0 West Bromwich West Bromwich İNLK
27.12.2021 Derby County Derby County 1-0 HT 0-0 West Bromwich West Bromwich İNCL
14.09.2021 West Bromwich West Bromwich 0-0 HT 0-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
08.07.2020 West Bromwich West Bromwich 2-0 HT 1-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
24.08.2019 Derby County Derby County 1-1 HT 1-0 West Bromwich West Bromwich İNCL

West Bromwich 1-3 Derby County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME West Bromwich
1-3
AWAY Derby County
0.90 xG 0.97
72% Ball Possession 28%
13 Total Shots 5
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
478 Passes 136
88% Pass Accuracy 63%
14 Box Touches 14
31 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH West Bromwich vs Derby County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Derby County beat West Bromwich 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was West Bromwich at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, West Bromwich had 72% of the ball to Derby County's 28%, shots finished 13-5, expected goals 0.90 to 0.97.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Derby County led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for West Bromwich and 0.83 for Derby County.

What was the final score of West Bromwich vs Derby County?

West Bromwich 1-3 Derby County in the England - Championship on 21/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for West Bromwich vs Derby County?

Before kick-off our model rated a West Bromwich win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split West Bromwich 46%, draw 25%, Derby County 28%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (West Bromwich) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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