Sturm Graz II 1-3 SV Horn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - 1st Division, 21 Apr 2025

📅21/04/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.27
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
34%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.21
Over 2.5
46%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.53
No
55%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.23
2-3 Goals
43%
1.86
4-5 Goals
19%
2.83
6+ Goals
9%
8.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.23 — our 29% vs market 17.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.44
1/2
7%
25.5
1/X
7%
12.65
X/1
12%
5.8
X/2
15%
6.2
X/X
14%
5.48
2/1
8%
24.2
2/2
12%
3.81
2/X
6%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
40%
-1.0pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.6pp
35%
Away Win
35%
-0.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
41%
+12.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
59%
-12.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
61%
-16.4pp
55%
BTTS No
39%
+16.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sturm Graz II EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY SV Horn EU Bookmakers 39%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -22%
1.30/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.91
-18% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -26%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
236 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 35.6
Crosses 21.6
3.4 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sturm Graz II
1W-2D-2L
AWAY SV Horn
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 2.20
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 15
8 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.10.2024 SV Horn SV Horn 2-2 HT 1-1 Sturm Graz II Sturm Graz II AU2
14.04.2024 Sturm Graz II Sturm Graz II 2-1 HT 1-1 SV Horn SV Horn AU2
24.09.2023 SV Horn SV Horn 4-0 HT 3-0 Sturm Graz II Sturm Graz II AU2
16.04.2023 Sturm Graz II Sturm Graz II 2-2 HT 1-1 SV Horn SV Horn AU2
22.07.2022 SV Horn SV Horn 2-1 HT 1-1 Sturm Graz II Sturm Graz II AU2
POST-MATCH Sturm Graz II vs SV Horn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

SV Horn saw off Sturm Graz II 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 27% / 35% — and on the day SV Horn made the difference. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, SV Horn led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Sturm Graz II and 2.20 for SV Horn.

What was the final score of Sturm Graz II vs SV Horn?

Sturm Graz II 1-3 SV Horn in the Austria - 1st Division on 21/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sturm Graz II vs SV Horn?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sturm Graz II win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Sturm Graz II 39%, draw 27%, SV Horn 35%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sturm Graz II) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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