Legia Varşova 2-1 Lechia Gdansk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 21 Apr 2025

📅21/04/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.57
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
21%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.33
Over 2.5
54%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.61
No
50%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.71
2-3 Goals
39%
1.92
4-5 Goals
24%
2.68
6+ Goals
14%
6.96
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.0
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
5%
14.75
X/1
21%
4.35
X/2
8%
10.75
X/X
13%
6.59
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
19.75
2/2
7%
7.83
2/X
7%
16.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.75 — our 11% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
59%
-6.0pp
26%
Draw
21%
+4.9pp
21%
Away Win
20%
+1.0pp
46%
Under 2.5
39%
+6.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
61%
-6.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.5pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Legia Varşova EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Lechia Gdansk EU Bookmakers 23%
+2% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -9%
2.02/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.88
+19% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -13%
53% Ball Possession 47%
18 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
357 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 79%
30.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
23.0 Crosses 17.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Legia Varşova
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Lechia Gdansk
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.81 xG 1.27
55% Ball Possession 45%
20 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
352 Passes 313
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
34 Box Touches 19
21 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.10.2024 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 0-2 HT 0-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
20.05.2023 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 1-0 HT 0-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
08.11.2022 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 2-2 HT 1-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POLK
04.11.2022 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 2-1 HT 0-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
02.04.2022 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 2-1 HT 1-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
03.10.2021 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 3-1 HT 1-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Legia Varşova
2-1
AWAY Lechia Gdansk
2.60 xG 1.21
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 2
325 Passes 255
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
45 Box Touches 12
32 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Legia Varşova vs Lechia Gdansk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Legia Varşova squeezed past Lechia Gdansk 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Legia Varşova as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Legia Varşova had 55% of the ball to Lechia Gdansk's 45%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 2.60 to 1.21 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Legia Varşova's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Legia Varşova had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Legia Varşova and 1.33 for Lechia Gdansk.

What was the final score of Legia Varşova vs Lechia Gdansk?

Legia Varşova 2-1 Lechia Gdansk in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 21/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Legia Varşova vs Lechia Gdansk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Legia Varşova win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Legia Varşova 53%, draw 26%, Lechia Gdansk 21%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Legia Varşova), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Legia Varşova) ✓ Over 2.5
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