Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-3 Zaglebie Lubin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 21 Apr 2025

📅21/04/2025 · 🕒15:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.72
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
24%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.07
Over 2.5
49%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.68
No
53%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.84
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
21%
3.0
6+ Goals
10%
9.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.84 — our 28% vs market 20.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.23
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
5%
14.05
X/1
20%
4.41
X/2
8%
9.42
X/X
14%
5.63
2/1
9%
21.7
2/2
11%
7.12
2/X
5%
15.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
54%
-3.7pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.9pp
25%
Away Win
22%
+2.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.5pp
53%
BTTS No
44%
+8.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Zaglebie Lubin EU Bookmakers 25%
-3% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -5%
1.80/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.60
+21% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / +13%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
381 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 76%
31.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
20.0 Crosses 17.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Zaglebie Lubin
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.89 xG 1.27
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
391 Passes 312
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
26 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
19.10.2024 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 1-3 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
20.04.2024 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 1-2 HT 0-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
20.10.2023 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 3-0 HT 2-0 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
18.03.2023 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-2 HT 0-1 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
04.09.2022 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 1-1 HT 0-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
03.04.2022 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-1 HT 0-0 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
1-3
AWAY Zaglebie Lubin
1.53 xG 2.97
63% Ball Possession 37%
17 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 7
13 Corners 2
351 Passes 182
81% Pass Accuracy 69%
29 Box Touches 24
31 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Zaglebie Lubin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zaglebie Lubin saw off Jagiellonia Bialystok 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Jagiellonia Bialystok at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Jagiellonia Bialystok had 63% of the ball to Zaglebie Lubin's 37%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 1.53 to 2.97.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Jagiellonia Bialystok had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Jagiellonia Bialystok and 1.00 for Zaglebie Lubin.

What was the final score of Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Zaglebie Lubin?

Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-3 Zaglebie Lubin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 21/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Zaglebie Lubin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Jagiellonia Bialystok win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Jagiellonia Bialystok 51%, draw 25%, Zaglebie Lubin 25%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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