Lech Poznan 2-1 Cracovia Krakow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 21 Apr 2025

📅21/04/2025 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.49
Draw
25%
4.19
Away
26%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.23
Over 2.5
50%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.34
2-3 Goals
38%
1.87
4-5 Goals
23%
2.8
6+ Goals
12%
7.84
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.34 — our 27% vs market 17.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1.82
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
7%
16.1
X/1
22%
4.11
X/2
10%
12.65
X/X
10%
6.65
2/1
6%
20.6
2/2
10%
9.9
2/X
8%
18.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
63%
-13.6pp
25%
Draw
21%
+4.5pp
26%
Away Win
16%
+9.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
41%
+9.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
59%
-9.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-7.2pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lech Poznan EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Cracovia Krakow EU Bookmakers 20%
-1% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +8%
1.90/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/2.07
+10% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / -2%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
370 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 74%
29.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
21.8 Crosses 14.5
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lech Poznan
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Cracovia Krakow
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.33 xG 1.13
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
409 Passes 244
84% Pass Accuracy 75%
17 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.10.2024 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow 0-2 HT 0-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
28.04.2024 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 0-0 HT 0-0 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow POL
28.10.2023 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow 1-1 HT 0-1 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
06.05.2023 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 3-0 HT 3-0 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow POL
23.10.2022 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow 0-0 HT 0-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
06.02.2022 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow 3-3 HT 1-1 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lech Poznan
2-1
AWAY Cracovia Krakow
1.73 xG 0.56
50% Ball Possession 50%
22 Total Shots 8
10 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
380 Passes 376
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
33 Box Touches 18
13 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lech Poznan edged past Cracovia Krakow 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lech Poznan as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Lech Poznan had 50% of the ball to Cracovia Krakow's 50%, shots finished 22-8, expected goals 1.73 to 0.56.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lech Poznan had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Lech Poznan and 0.67 for Cracovia Krakow.

What was the final score of Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow?

Lech Poznan 2-1 Cracovia Krakow in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 21/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lech Poznan win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Lech Poznan 49%, draw 25%, Cracovia Krakow 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lech Poznan) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lech Poznan) ✗ BTTS No
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