BUL vs UPDF Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
BUL v UPDF — Team-Based Signals
BUL vs UPDF Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings
5-1
HT 2-0
UPDF
UGA
1-1
HT 0-1
BUL
UGA
UPDF ran out comfortable winners over BUL 5-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-4. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
This one beat our numbers. BUL carried 65% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.
For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, BUL had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for BUL and 1.00 for UPDF.
What was the final score of BUL vs UPDF?
BUL 2-5 UPDF in the Uganda - Premier League on 21/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for BUL vs UPDF?
Before kick-off our model rated a BUL win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split BUL 65%, draw 21%, UPDF 14%. The final score 2-5 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.