BUL 2-5 UPDF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 21 Apr 2026

BUL
2-5 HT 1-4
UPDF
📅21/04/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
65%
1.57
Draw
21%
3.64
Away
14%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.67
Over 2.5
49%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.16
No
51%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1/2
3%
1/X
5%
X/1
18%
X/2
8%
X/X
8%
2/1
10%
2/2
3%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
65%
Home Win
60%
+5.8pp
21%
Draw
24%
-3.8pp
14%
Away Win
16%
-2.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
56%
-5.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
44%
+5.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
42%
+6.7pp
51%
BTTS No
58%
-6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BUL EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY UPDF EU Bookmakers 19%
-15% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +4%
1.04/0.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/1.51
-39% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -2%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
365 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BUL
2W-1D-1L
AWAY UPDF
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
56% Ball Possession 44%
4 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.01.2026 UPDF UPDF 0-1 HT 0-1 BUL BUL UGA
04.12.2024 BUL BUL 0-2 HT 0-1 UPDF UPDF UGA
01.03.2022 BUL BUL 5-1 HT 2-0 UPDF UPDF UGA
22.12.2021 UPDF UPDF 1-1 HT 0-1 BUL BUL UGA
POST-MATCH BUL vs UPDF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

UPDF ran out comfortable winners over BUL 5-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-4. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. BUL carried 65% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, BUL had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for BUL and 1.00 for UPDF.

What was the final score of BUL vs UPDF?

BUL 2-5 UPDF in the Uganda - Premier League on 21/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BUL vs UPDF?

Before kick-off our model rated a BUL win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split BUL 65%, draw 21%, UPDF 14%. The final score 2-5 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (BUL) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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