Uganda Police 2-1 URA — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 21 Apr 2026

📅21/04/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.19
Draw
30%
2.94
Away
30%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.54
Over 2.5
41%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.09
No
50%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
12%
X/X
17%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
42%
-1.6pp
30%
Draw
30%
-0.8pp
30%
Away Win
28%
+2.3pp
59%
Under 2.5
61%
-1.7pp
41%
Over 2.5
39%
+1.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
44%
+6.1pp
50%
BTTS No
56%
-6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Uganda Police EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY URA EU Bookmakers 32%
-3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
1.33/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/0.44
+40% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +76% / +113%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
289 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Uganda Police
1W-2D-1L
AWAY URA
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.25
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
31.01.2026 URA URA 0-0 HT 0-0 Uganda Police Uganda Police UGA
25.04.2025 Uganda Police Uganda Police 2-0 HT 0-0 URA URA UGA
07.01.2025 URA URA 1-0 HT 0-0 Uganda Police Uganda Police UGA
30.11.2021 URA URA 0-0 HT 0-0 Uganda Police Uganda Police UGA
POST-MATCH Uganda Police vs URA
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Uganda Police squeezed past URA 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 30% / 30% — and on the day Uganda Police made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Uganda Police and 0.25 for URA.

What was the final score of Uganda Police vs URA?

Uganda Police 2-1 URA in the Uganda - Premier League on 21/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Uganda Police vs URA?

Before kick-off our model rated a Uganda Police win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Uganda Police 40%, draw 30%, URA 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Uganda Police) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Uganda Police) ✗ Under 2.5
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