Columbus Crew 1-0 New York City FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Open Cup, 21 May 2026

📅21/05/2026 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.92
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
30%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.23
Over 2.5
50%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.53
No
46%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.27
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
24%
2.74
6+ Goals
10%
7.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.61
1/2
6%
30.5
1/X
5%
12.55
X/1
13%
4.92
X/2
7%
7.53
X/X
10%
5.54
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
21.3
2/2
18%
5.04
2/X
8%
13.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.3 — our 9% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
48%
-1.8pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.0pp
30%
Away Win
28%
+2.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
61%
-7.4pp
46%
BTTS No
39%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Columbus Crew EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY New York City FC EU Bookmakers 31%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -31% / -31%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -91% / +8%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
354 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
Crosses 15.3
Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Columbus Crew
2W-2D-2L
AWAY New York City FC
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.63 xG 1.09
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
458 Passes 382
86% Pass Accuracy 83%
29 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 1
10.05.2026 New York City FC New York City FC 3-0 HT 2-0 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew ABD
18.09.2025 New York City FC New York City FC 3-2 HT 1-1 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew ABD
23.03.2025 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 0-0 HT 0-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
01.09.2024 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 4-2 HT 1-1 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
18.08.2024 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew 1-1 HT 1-1 New York City FC New York City FC CONLK
15.06.2024 New York City FC New York City FC 2-3 HT 1-0 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Columbus Crew
1-0
AWAY New York City FC
1.67 xG 0.19
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 5
8 Shots on Target 0
3 Corners 4
586 Passes 374
90% Pass Accuracy 86%
25 Box Touches 14
8 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Columbus Crew vs New York City FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Columbus Crew nicked a narrow win over New York City FC 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Columbus Crew as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Columbus Crew had 60% of the ball to New York City FC's 40%, shots finished 14-5, expected goals 1.67 to 0.19 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Columbus Crew's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Columbus Crew and 1.83 for New York City FC.

What was the final score of Columbus Crew vs New York City FC?

Columbus Crew 1-0 New York City FC in the USA - Open Cup on 21/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Columbus Crew vs New York City FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Columbus Crew win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Columbus Crew 47%, draw 23%, New York City FC 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Columbus Crew) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Columbus Crew) ✗ BTTS Yes
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