Columbus Crew vs New York City FC Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Columbus Crew v New York City FC — Team-Based Signals
Columbus Crew vs New York City FC Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-3
HT 1-0
Columbus Crew
ABD
Columbus Crew 1-0 New York City FC — Actual Match Statistics
Columbus Crew nicked a narrow win over New York City FC 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Columbus Crew as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.
On the day, Columbus Crew had 60% of the ball to New York City FC's 40%, shots finished 14-5, expected goals 1.67 to 0.19 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Columbus Crew's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Columbus Crew and 1.83 for New York City FC.
What was the final score of Columbus Crew vs New York City FC?
Columbus Crew 1-0 New York City FC in the USA - Open Cup on 21/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Columbus Crew vs New York City FC?
Before kick-off our model rated a Columbus Crew win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Columbus Crew 47%, draw 23%, New York City FC 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Columbus Crew) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.