Independiente 0-3 Botafogo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 21 May 2026

📅21/05/2026 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 2nd Score 1-4
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
17%
9.57
Draw
14%
5.71
Away
69%
1.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
34%
2.63
Over 2.5
66%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.9
No
38%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
16%
5.62
2-3 Goals
33%
1.99
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
37%
2.45
6+ Goals
14%
5.34
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 2.45 — our 37% vs market 33.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
20.2
1/2
5%
21.2
1/X
3%
28.0
X/1
6%
23.95
X/2
24%
3.82
X/X
8%
9.7
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
39%
1.34
2/X
3%
23.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
17%
Home Win
8%
+9.2pp
14%
Draw
15%
-0.4pp
68%
Away Win
77%
-8.8pp
34%
Under 2.5
34%
-0.2pp
66%
Over 2.5
66%
+0.2pp
62%
BTTS Yes
49%
+13.6pp
38%
BTTS No
51%
-13.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente EU Bookmakers 10%
Head to Head
AWAY Botafogo EU Bookmakers 81%
-23% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-5% / -46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 4
238 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 531 · 86%
14.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
16.0 Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Botafogo
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.08 xG 4.06
38% Ball Possession 62%
3 Total Shots 34
2 Shots on Target 14
1 Corners 14
215 Passes 380
77% Pass Accuracy 86%
1 Box Touches 42
5 Crosses 32
1 Yellow Cards 2
29.04.2026 Botafogo Botafogo 3-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Independiente CSA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente
0-3
AWAY Botafogo
0.20 xG 6.84
33% Ball Possession 67%
4 Total Shots 41
0 Shots on Target 19
1 Corners 5
199 Passes 510
70% Pass Accuracy 86%
6 Box Touches 65
3 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Independiente vs Botafogo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botafogo cruised past Independiente 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Botafogo as the likeliest winner at 68%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (66%) landed while both teams to score (62%) missed.

On the day, Independiente had 33% of the ball to Botafogo's 67%, shots finished 4-41, expected goals 0.20 to 6.84.

What was the final score of Independiente vs Botafogo?

Independiente 0-3 Botafogo in the Copa Sudamericana on 21/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente vs Botafogo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Botafogo win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split Independiente 17%, draw 14%, Botafogo 68%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Botafogo), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Botafogo) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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