El Nacional 0-3 Uni. Catolica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 21 Jun 2025

📅21/06/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.94
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
45%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.07
Over 2.5
45%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.6
No
54%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
7%
X/2
19%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
19%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
31%
+0.8pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.7pp
45%
Away Win
44%
+0.9pp
55%
Under 2.5
44%
+10.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
56%
-10.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
58%
-12.7pp
54%
BTTS No
42%
+12.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME El Nacional EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Uni. Catolica EU Bookmakers 48%
-1% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -9%
1.09/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.15
-16% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -1%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
254 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 80%
16.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
19.4 Crosses 15.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME El Nacional
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Uni. Catolica
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.86 xG 1.63
39% Ball Possession 61%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
194 Passes 378
71% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.02.2025 Uni. Catolica 1-1 HT 0-1 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
04.08.2024 El Nacional El Nacional 0-2 HT 0-1 Uni. Catolica EKV1
03.03.2024 Uni. Catolica 3-0 HT 1-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
02.09.2023 Uni. Catolica 1-1 HT 0-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
08.04.2023 El Nacional El Nacional 1-2 HT 1-1 Uni. Catolica EKV1
19.11.2020 El Nacional El Nacional 0-2 HT 0-2 Uni. Catolica EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME El Nacional
0-3
AWAY Uni. Catolica
0.40 xG 2.20
26% Ball Possession 74%
10 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 10
5 Corners 9
141 Passes 511
72% Pass Accuracy 89%
11 Box Touches 34
7 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH El Nacional vs Uni. Catolica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Uni. Catolica cruised past El Nacional 3-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Uni. Catolica as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, El Nacional had 26% of the ball to Uni. Catolica's 74%, shots finished 10-20, expected goals 0.40 to 2.20.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Uni. Catolica led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for El Nacional and 1.83 for Uni. Catolica.

What was the final score of El Nacional vs Uni. Catolica?

El Nacional 0-3 Uni. Catolica in the Ecuador - Premier on 21/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for El Nacional vs Uni. Catolica?

Before kick-off our model rated an Uni. Catolica win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split El Nacional 31%, draw 24%, Uni. Catolica 45%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Uni. Catolica), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Uni. Catolica) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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