Uni. Catolica 1-1 El Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 23 Feb 2025

📅23/02/2025 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.49
Draw
25%
4.19
Away
22%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.23
Over 2.5
53%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.7
No
47%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
9%
X/X
14%
2/1
11%
2/2
7%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
63%
-10.2pp
25%
Draw
21%
+4.7pp
22%
Away Win
16%
+5.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.3pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
55%
-2.0pp
47%
BTTS No
45%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Uni. Catolica EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY El Nacional EU Bookmakers 20%
-2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +34%
1.88/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.46
+20% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +46% / +30%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
323 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 219 · 71%
25.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.2
19.7 Crosses 14.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Uni. Catolica
4W-2D-0L
AWAY El Nacional
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.40 xG 1.06
62% Ball Possession 38%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
377 Passes 178
81% Pass Accuracy 68%
21 Box Touches 16
14 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
04.08.2024 El Nacional El Nacional 0-2 HT 0-1 Uni. Catolica EKV1
03.03.2024 Uni. Catolica 3-0 HT 1-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
02.09.2023 Uni. Catolica 1-1 HT 0-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
08.04.2023 El Nacional El Nacional 1-2 HT 1-1 Uni. Catolica EKV1
19.11.2020 El Nacional El Nacional 0-2 HT 0-2 Uni. Catolica EKV1
24.08.2020 Uni. Catolica 1-1 HT 0-1 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Uni. Catolica
1-1
AWAY El Nacional
2.38 xG 0.80
62% Ball Possession 38%
19 Total Shots 17
7 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 5
383 Passes 210
84% Pass Accuracy 75%
38 Box Touches 13
19 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Uni. Catolica vs El Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Uni. Catolica and El Nacional couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Uni. Catolica at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Uni. Catolica had 62% of the ball to El Nacional's 38%, shots finished 19-17, expected goals 2.38 to 0.80.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Uni. Catolica had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Uni. Catolica and 0.50 for El Nacional.

What was the final score of Uni. Catolica vs El Nacional?

Uni. Catolica 1-1 El Nacional in the Ecuador - Premier on 23/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Uni. Catolica vs El Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Uni. Catolica win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Uni. Catolica 53%, draw 25%, El Nacional 22%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Uni. Catolica), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Uni. Catolica) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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