Ilves Tampere 3-2 VPS — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 21 Jul 2024

📅21/07/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.53
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
24%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.29
Over 2.5
47%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.66
No
56%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.8
2-3 Goals
42%
1.93
4-5 Goals
21%
2.81
6+ Goals
9%
7.67
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.8 — our 28% vs market 16.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.9
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.75
X/1
18%
3.92
X/2
8%
11.45
X/X
13%
6.44
2/1
8%
20.35
2/2
11%
8.15
2/X
6%
16.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
61%
-11.1pp
26%
Draw
21%
+4.5pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+6.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
40%
+13.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
60%
-13.3pp
44%
BTTS Yes
56%
-11.8pp
56%
BTTS No
44%
+11.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ilves Tampere EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY VPS EU Bookmakers 21%
-11% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +25%
2.06/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.17
-1% / -44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / +41%
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
386 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 75%
34.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
19.7 Crosses 18.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ilves Tampere
2W-2D-2L
AWAY VPS
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.09 xG 1.27
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 6
412 Passes 339
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
26 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
07.06.2024 VPS VPS 1-1 HT 1-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
03.02.2024 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 3-1 HT 2-1 VPS VPS FLK
28.07.2023 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 0-2 HT 0-2 VPS VPS FİN
26.05.2023 VPS VPS 0-2 HT 0-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
18.02.2023 VPS VPS 0-0 HT 0-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FLK
18.09.2022 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 2-3 HT 0-0 VPS VPS FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ilves Tampere
3-2
AWAY VPS
1.22 xG 2.28
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 7
381 Passes 493
84% Pass Accuracy 88%
18 Box Touches 34
4 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Ilves Tampere vs VPS
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ilves Tampere nicked a narrow win over VPS 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Ilves Tampere as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ilves Tampere had 44% of the ball to VPS's 56%, shots finished 8-14, expected goals 1.22 to 2.28 — on chances, VPS could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Ilves Tampere and 1.17 for VPS.

What was the final score of Ilves Tampere vs VPS?

Ilves Tampere 3-2 VPS in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 21/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ilves Tampere vs VPS?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ilves Tampere win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Ilves Tampere 50%, draw 26%, VPS 24%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ilves Tampere) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ilves Tampere) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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