KuPS Kuopio 1-0 FC Lahti — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 21 Jul 2024

📅21/07/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.49
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
18%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
1.97
Over 2.5
58%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.9
No
48%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.6
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
28%
3.34
6+ Goals
12%
12.1
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.34 — our 28% vs market 24.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.88
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
16.95
X/1
17%
3.64
X/2
7%
12.2
X/X
10%
5.67
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
23.15
2/2
6%
9.82
2/X
6%
17.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.15 — our 7% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
62%
-4.0pp
24%
Draw
22%
+1.6pp
18%
Away Win
16%
+2.3pp
42%
Under 2.5
47%
-4.4pp
58%
Over 2.5
53%
+4.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.5pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME KuPS Kuopio EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Lahti EU Bookmakers 19%
+1% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -7%
1.77/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/2.00
-9% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / -13%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
455 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 74%
27.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
22.4 Crosses 14.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME KuPS Kuopio
6W-0D-0L
AWAY FC Lahti
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.36 xG 0.86
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
352 Passes 325
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
17 Box Touches 19
12 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 3
27.04.2024 FC Lahti FC Lahti 0-1 HT 0-1 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİN
16.03.2024 FC Lahti FC Lahti 0-2 HT 0-2 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FLK
01.07.2023 FC Lahti FC Lahti 3-4 HT 1-2 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİN
20.05.2023 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio 2-0 HT 2-0 FC Lahti FC Lahti FİN
31.08.2022 FC Lahti FC Lahti 0-1 HT 0-1 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİK
10.07.2022 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio 4-0 HT 1-0 FC Lahti FC Lahti FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME KuPS Kuopio
1-0
AWAY FC Lahti
1.37 xG 0.85
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 6
523 Passes 329
91% Pass Accuracy 85%
33 Box Touches 17
26 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH KuPS Kuopio vs FC Lahti
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

KuPS Kuopio nicked a narrow win over FC Lahti 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had KuPS Kuopio as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, KuPS Kuopio had 59% of the ball to FC Lahti's 41%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 1.37 to 0.85.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, KuPS Kuopio had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for KuPS Kuopio and 0.50 for FC Lahti.

What was the final score of KuPS Kuopio vs FC Lahti?

KuPS Kuopio 1-0 FC Lahti in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 21/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for KuPS Kuopio vs FC Lahti?

Before kick-off our model rated a KuPS Kuopio win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split KuPS Kuopio 58%, draw 24%, FC Lahti 18%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (KuPS Kuopio) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (KuPS Kuopio) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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