Deportivo Garcilaso 3-1 Union Comercio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 21 Aug 2024

📅21/08/2024 · 🕒23:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.33
Draw
22%
4.62
Away
17%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
2.1
Over 2.5
43%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
1.99
No
61%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
5%
X/X
7%
2/1
7%
2/2
6%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
71%
-9.3pp
22%
Draw
18%
+3.8pp
17%
Away Win
11%
+5.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
44%
+13.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
56%
-13.3pp
39%
BTTS Yes
46%
-7.4pp
61%
BTTS No
54%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Garcilaso EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Comercio EU Bookmakers 14%
-23% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -5%
1.88/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.59/1.87
-23% / -39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -11%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
325 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 77%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.0
26.6 Crosses 9.4
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Garcilaso
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Union Comercio
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.68 xG 1.12
50% Ball Possession 50%
18 Total Shots 16
8 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 3
264 Passes 266
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
15.03.2024 Union Comercio Union Comercio 0-4 HT 0-2 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso PER
22.10.2023 Union Comercio Union Comercio 1-2 HT 1-0 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso PER
04.06.2023 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 2-2 HT 0-0 Union Comercio Union Comercio PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Garcilaso
3-1
AWAY Union Comercio
2.54 xG 0.41
42% Ball Possession 58%
19 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 1
189 Passes 289
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
29 Box Touches 4
27 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Deportivo Garcilaso vs Union Comercio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Garcilaso beat Union Comercio 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Deportivo Garcilaso as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Deportivo Garcilaso had 42% of the ball to Union Comercio's 58%, shots finished 19-6, expected goals 2.54 to 0.41.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Deportivo Garcilaso had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Deportivo Garcilaso and 1.00 for Union Comercio.

What was the final score of Deportivo Garcilaso vs Union Comercio?

Deportivo Garcilaso 3-1 Union Comercio in the Peru - Premier League on 21/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Garcilaso vs Union Comercio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Garcilaso win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Garcilaso 61%, draw 22%, Union Comercio 17%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Deportivo Garcilaso) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Deportivo Garcilaso) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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