Peterborough United 3-2 Bristol Rovers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 21 Sep 2024

Peterborough United
3-2 HT 2-0
Bristol Rovers
📅21/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - 1st Division – 2024/2025

Peterborough United vs Bristol Rovers Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.53
Draw
25%
4.08
Away
24%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.29
Over 2.5
51%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.66
No
49%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
23%
4.69
2-3 Goals
40%
1.91
4-5 Goals
24%
2.85
6+ Goals
13%
7.92
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.69 — our 23% vs market 16.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.9
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.55
X/1
14%
3.93
X/2
8%
11.4
X/X
10%
6.3
2/1
9%
20.6
2/2
10%
8.21
2/X
8%
16.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
61%
-10.1pp
25%
Draw
21%
+3.7pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+6.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
40%
+9.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
60%
-9.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.5pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Peterborough United v Bristol Rovers — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Peterborough United EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Bristol Rovers EU Bookmakers 21%
+0% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +7%
1.90/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.58
+24% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +3%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
336 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 71%
29.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
26.4 Crosses 14.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.2

Peterborough United vs Bristol Rovers Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Peterborough United
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Bristol Rovers
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.31 xG 0.89
50% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
295 Passes 290
75% Pass Accuracy 74%
27 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.09.2023 Peterborough United Peterborough United 2-0 HT 1-0 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İN1
29.04.2023 Peterborough United Peterborough United 0-0 HT 0-0 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İN1
19.11.2022 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 1-0 HT 0-0 Peterborough United Peterborough United İN1
08.01.2022 Peterborough United Peterborough United 2-1 HT 1-1 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers FAK
26.01.2021 Peterborough United Peterborough United 0-0 HT 0-0 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İN1
03.11.2020 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 0-2 HT 0-1 Peterborough United Peterborough United İN1

Peterborough United 3-2 Bristol Rovers — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Peterborough United
3-2
AWAY Bristol Rovers
1.90 xG 1.34
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 15
8 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 5
361 Passes 243
81% Pass Accuracy 72%
14 Box Touches 23
7 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Peterborough United vs Bristol Rovers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Peterborough United nicked a narrow win over Bristol Rovers 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Peterborough United as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Peterborough United had 56% of the ball to Bristol Rovers's 44%, shots finished 12-15, expected goals 1.90 to 1.34.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Peterborough United had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Peterborough United and 0.33 for Bristol Rovers.

What was the final score of Peterborough United vs Bristol Rovers?

Peterborough United 3-2 Bristol Rovers in the England - 1st Division on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Peterborough United vs Bristol Rovers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Peterborough United win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Peterborough United 51%, draw 25%, Bristol Rovers 24%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Peterborough United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Peterborough United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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