Burton Albion 1-2 Barnsley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.69
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
51%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.21
Over 2.5
51%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.56
No
53%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.49
2-3 Goals
38%
1.9
4-5 Goals
24%
2.91
6+ Goals
11%
8.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.49 — our 27% vs market 17.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
6.03
1/2
12%
21.85
1/X
7%
13.4
X/1
14%
8.83
X/2
15%
4.49
X/X
8%
5.4
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
24%
2.33
2/X
8%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
24%
+2.3pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.7pp
51%
Away Win
52%
-0.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
60%
-12.5pp
53%
BTTS No
40%
+12.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burton Albion EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Barnsley EU Bookmakers 56%
+0% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +12%
1.06/1.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.77/0.87
+2% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +9%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
226 · 65% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 70%
19.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.5
17.7 Crosses 20.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Burton Albion
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Barnsley
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.62 xG 1.55
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
252 Passes 333
64% Pass Accuracy 72%
17 Box Touches 23
12 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 2
01.04.2024 Burton Albion Burton Albion 1-3 HT 1-0 Barnsley Barnsley İN1
16.09.2023 Barnsley Barnsley 2-0 HT 1-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
07.04.2023 Burton Albion Burton Albion 2-1 HT 0-0 Barnsley Barnsley İN1
17.12.2022 Barnsley Barnsley 2-0 HT 1-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
06.04.2019 Burton Albion Burton Albion 3-1 HT 1-0 Barnsley Barnsley İN1
19.02.2019 Barnsley Barnsley 0-0 HT 0-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burton Albion
1-2
AWAY Barnsley
0.33 xG 1.32
62% Ball Possession 38%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
429 Passes 221
80% Pass Accuracy 71%
8 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Burton Albion vs Barnsley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barnsley squeezed past Burton Albion 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Barnsley as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Burton Albion had 62% of the ball to Barnsley's 38%, shots finished 8-15, expected goals 0.33 to 1.32.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Barnsley led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Burton Albion and 1.50 for Barnsley.

What was the final score of Burton Albion vs Barnsley?

Burton Albion 1-2 Barnsley in the England - 1st Division on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burton Albion vs Barnsley?

Before kick-off our model rated an Barnsley win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Burton Albion 26%, draw 23%, Barnsley 51%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Barnsley), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Barnsley) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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