Accrington Stanley 2-2 Port Vale — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.08
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
43%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.9
Over 2.5
46%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.7
No
54%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.37
2-3 Goals
37%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.52
6+ Goals
9%
13.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.37 — our 31% vs market 24.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
5.02
1/2
9%
24.85
1/X
8%
13.65
X/1
16%
6.93
X/2
15%
4.61
X/X
10%
4.72
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
19%
2.84
2/X
6%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
29%
+4.3pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.9pp
43%
Away Win
45%
-2.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
49%
+5.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
51%
-5.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
55%
-8.5pp
54%
BTTS No
45%
+8.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Accrington Stanley EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Port Vale EU Bookmakers 49%
+3% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -7%
1.41/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.82/0.97
+10% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / +3%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
245 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 71%
18.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.1
21.8 Crosses 23.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Accrington Stanley
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Port Vale
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.79 xG 1.09
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
127 Passes 220
52% Pass Accuracy 65%
25 Box Touches 26
18 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
07.04.2023 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley 3-0 HT 2-0 Port Vale Port Vale İN1
07.02.2023 Port Vale Port Vale 1-1 HT 0-0 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley İN1
06.11.2021 Port Vale Port Vale 5-1 HT 1-0 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley FAK
20.01.2018 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley 3-2 HT 0-2 Port Vale Port Vale İN2
26.09.2017 Port Vale Port Vale 1-2 HT 1-1 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley İN2
02.02.2013 Port Vale Port Vale 3-0 HT 0-0 Accrington Stanley Accrington Stanley İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Accrington Stanley
2-2
AWAY Port Vale
1.15 xG 1.15
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 8
150 Passes 225
55% Pass Accuracy 65%
18 Box Touches 27
22 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Accrington Stanley vs Port Vale
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Accrington Stanley and Port Vale couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Port Vale at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Accrington Stanley had 44% of the ball to Port Vale's 56%, shots finished 13-14, expected goals 1.15 to 1.15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Accrington Stanley had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Accrington Stanley and 2.00 for Port Vale.

What was the final score of Accrington Stanley vs Port Vale?

Accrington Stanley 2-2 Port Vale in the England - 2nd Division on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Accrington Stanley vs Port Vale?

Before kick-off our model rated an Port Vale win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Accrington Stanley 33%, draw 24%, Port Vale 43%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Port Vale) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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