Notts County 0-1 Gillingham — Result, Stats & Model Review (England - 2nd Division, 21 Sep 2024)

Notts County

0-1 HT 0-1

Gillingham

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3

Top 2 Score Predictions

1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗

England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Notts County vs Gillingham Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions

Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend

⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.

Match Result

Home

46%

1.89

Draw

22%

3.54

Away

32%

3.44

Under/Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42%

2.07

Over 2.5

58%

1.68

Both Teams to Score

Yes

56%

1.63

44%

2.13

Total Goals

0-1 Goal

21%

3.94

2-3 Goals

40%

1.84

4-5 Goals

26%

3.15

6+ Goals

13%

10.4

Half Time / Full Time

1/1

21%

2.56

1/2

34.5

1/X

13.45

X/1

15%

4.48

X/2

7.62

X/X

5.24

2/1 EV+ ✗

10%

22.7

2/2

15%

5.37

2/X

13.85

Value flag · 2/1 at 22.7 — our 10% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.

PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine

Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline

✋

Decision

No Bet — Skip This Match

The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.

Model vs Market — where we differ

iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers

46%

Home Win

49%

-3.1pp

22%

Draw

25%

-2.6pp

32%

Away Win

26%

+5.7pp

42%

Under 2.5

44%

-1.9pp

58%

Over 2.5

56%

+1.9pp

56%

BTTS Yes

57%

-0.9pp

44%

BTTS No

43%

+0.9pp

gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Notts County v Gillingham — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine

iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals

HOME Notts County EU Bookmakers 53%

Head to Head

AWAY Gillingham EU Bookmakers 29%

-5% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -4%

1.58/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.13

+40% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / +1%

54% Ball Possession 46%

13 Total Shots 12

6 Shots on Target 5

6 Corners 5

292 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 74%

23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3

23.5 Crosses 15.9

1.7 Yellow Cards 1.9

Notts County vs Gillingham Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings

Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings

HOME Notts County

3W-0D-3L

AWAY Gillingham

1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67

0.95 xG 1.40

59% Ball Possession 41%

13 Total Shots 15

6 Shots on Target 6

5 Corners 5

607 Passes 216

92% Pass Accuracy 76%

18 Box Touches 24

31 Crosses 18

2 Yellow Cards 2

The Meetings

09.02.2024 Notts County

1-3 HT 1-2

Gillingham İN2

21.10.2023 Gillingham

1-2 HT 0-1

Notts County İN2

03.05.2015 Gillingham

3-1 HT 0-0

Notts County İN1

04.10.2014 Notts County

1-0 HT 1-0

Gillingham İN1

07.12.2013 Notts County

3-1 HT 1-0

Gillingham İN1

22.10.2013 Gillingham

2-1 HT 2-0

Notts County İN1

Notts County 0-1 Gillingham — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result

Real recorded figures from this match

HOME Notts County

0-1

AWAY Gillingham

1.63 xG 1.25

70% Ball Possession 30%

12 Total Shots 9

3 Shots on Target 5

6 Corners 3

538 Passes 188

92% Pass Accuracy 76%

22 Box Touches 13

29 Crosses 13

3 Yellow Cards 4

POST-MATCH Notts County vs Gillingham

iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gillingham edged past Notts County 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Notts County at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Notts County had 70% of the ball to Gillingham's 30%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 1.63 to 1.25.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Notts County and 1.67 for Gillingham.

What was the final score of Notts County vs Gillingham?

Notts County 0-1 Gillingham in the England - 2nd Division on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Notts County vs Gillingham?

Before kick-off our model rated a Notts County win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Notts County 46%, draw 22%, Gillingham 32%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Notts County) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes

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