Chesterfield 1-1 Cheltenham Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 21 Sep 2024

Chesterfield
1-1 HT 1-0
Cheltenham Town
📅21/09/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Chesterfield vs Cheltenham Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.53
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
30%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.1
Over 2.5
44%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.75
No
53%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.1
2-3 Goals
41%
1.85
4-5 Goals
20%
3.06
6+ Goals
10%
9.73
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.1 — our 29% vs market 19.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1.94
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.7
X/1
15%
3.85
X/2
10%
11.3
X/X
8%
5.87
2/1
8%
21.85
2/2
14%
8.53
2/X
11%
16.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
61%
-16.5pp
26%
Draw
22%
+3.6pp
30%
Away Win
17%
+12.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
44%
+11.7pp
44%
Over 2.5
56%
-11.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.5pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Chesterfield v Cheltenham Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chesterfield EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Cheltenham Town EU Bookmakers 21%
-4% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -11%
1.18/0.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.88
-24% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -8%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
363 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 69%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
21.6 Crosses 14.7
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.4

Chesterfield vs Cheltenham Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chesterfield
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Cheltenham Town
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
The Meetings
17.03.2018 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 1-1 HT 0-0 Chesterfield Chesterfield İN2
30.09.2017 Chesterfield Chesterfield 0-2 HT 0-1 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN2
25.02.2014 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 1-4 HT 0-4 Chesterfield Chesterfield İN2
10.08.2013 Chesterfield Chesterfield 2-0 HT 1-0 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN2
05.03.2013 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Chesterfield Chesterfield İN2
20.11.2012 Chesterfield Chesterfield 4-1 HT 2-0 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN2

Chesterfield 1-1 Cheltenham Town — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chesterfield
1-1
AWAY Cheltenham Town
1.83 xG 1.24
67% Ball Possession 33%
13 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 1
409 Passes 151
82% Pass Accuracy 61%
27 Box Touches 13
19 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Chesterfield vs Cheltenham Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chesterfield and Cheltenham Town shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Chesterfield at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Chesterfield had 67% of the ball to Cheltenham Town's 33%, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 1.83 to 1.24.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chesterfield had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Chesterfield and 1.00 for Cheltenham Town.

What was the final score of Chesterfield vs Cheltenham Town?

Chesterfield 1-1 Cheltenham Town in the England - 2nd Division on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chesterfield vs Cheltenham Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chesterfield win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Chesterfield 44%, draw 26%, Cheltenham Town 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Chesterfield), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Chesterfield) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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