Swindon Town 0-2 Carlisle United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 21 Sep 2024

Swindon Town
0-2 HT 0-1
Carlisle United
📅21/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Swindon Town vs Carlisle United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.92
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
31%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.46
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.44
6+ Goals
9%
13.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.46 — our 29% vs market 23.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.64
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.45
X/1
12%
4.43
X/2
15%
7.48
X/X
15%
4.84
2/1
7%
24.0
2/2
9%
5.48
2/X
5%
13.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
48%
-5.5pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.1pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+5.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-6.4pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Swindon Town v Carlisle United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Swindon Town EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Carlisle United EU Bookmakers 29%
-10% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -5%
1.45/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.18
+3% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -3%
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
368 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 71%
26.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
22.2 Crosses 16.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2

Swindon Town vs Carlisle United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Swindon Town
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Carlisle United
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.83 xG 1.07
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
324 Passes 184
73% Pass Accuracy 61%
22 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.03.2023 Swindon Town Swindon Town 1-2 HT 0-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
13.08.2022 Carlisle United Carlisle United 1-1 HT 1-1 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
19.02.2022 Carlisle United Carlisle United 0-3 HT 0-1 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
14.08.2021 Swindon Town Swindon Town 1-2 HT 1-2 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
08.02.2020 Carlisle United Carlisle United 1-1 HT 0-1 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
10.08.2019 Swindon Town Swindon Town 3-2 HT 0-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2

Swindon Town 0-2 Carlisle United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Swindon Town
0-2
AWAY Carlisle United
1.18 xG 1.05
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 5
386 Passes 266
86% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 10
38 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Swindon Town vs Carlisle United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Carlisle United beat Swindon Town 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Swindon Town at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Swindon Town had 58% of the ball to Carlisle United's 42%, shots finished 16-8, expected goals 1.18 to 1.05.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Swindon Town and 1.33 for Carlisle United.

What was the final score of Swindon Town vs Carlisle United?

Swindon Town 0-2 Carlisle United in the England - 2nd Division on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Swindon Town vs Carlisle United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Swindon Town win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Swindon Town 43%, draw 26%, Carlisle United 31%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Swindon Town) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Swindon Town) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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