Sportfreunde Lotte 1-1 Fortuna Köln — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.53
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
43%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.07
Over 2.5
55%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.6
No
46%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
16%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
19%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
36%
-4.0pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.1pp
43%
Away Win
39%
+4.1pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+0.2pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-0.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.3pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sportfreunde Lotte EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortuna Köln EU Bookmakers 43%
+5% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -19%
1.26/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.32
-15% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +5%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
271 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 393 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sportfreunde Lotte
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Fortuna Köln
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
14.05.2022 Fortuna Köln Fortuna Köln 2-1 HT 1-0 Sportfreunde Lotte Sportfreunde Lotte ALMBÖL
15.02.2022 Sportfreunde Lotte Sportfreunde Lotte 1-2 HT 0-1 Fortuna Köln Fortuna Köln ALMBÖL
27.02.2021 Fortuna Köln Fortuna Köln 2-2 HT 1-0 Sportfreunde Lotte Sportfreunde Lotte ALMBÖL
03.10.2020 Sportfreunde Lotte Sportfreunde Lotte 1-0 HT 0-0 Fortuna Köln Fortuna Köln ALMBÖL
19.10.2019 Fortuna Köln Fortuna Köln 2-0 HT 1-0 Sportfreunde Lotte Sportfreunde Lotte ALMBÖL
09.03.2019 Sportfreunde Lotte Sportfreunde Lotte 1-2 HT 0-1 Fortuna Köln Fortuna Köln AL3
POST-MATCH Sportfreunde Lotte vs Fortuna Köln
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sportfreunde Lotte and Fortuna Köln shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Fortuna Köln at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fortuna Köln led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sportfreunde Lotte and 1.67 for Fortuna Köln.

What was the final score of Sportfreunde Lotte vs Fortuna Köln?

Sportfreunde Lotte 1-1 Fortuna Köln in the Germany - Regional League on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sportfreunde Lotte vs Fortuna Köln?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fortuna Köln win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Sportfreunde Lotte 32%, draw 25%, Fortuna Köln 43%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Fortuna Köln), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fortuna Köln) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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