Valour 1-1 HFX Wanderers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kanada - Premier League, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.8
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
33%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.8
Over 2.5
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.1
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.77
6+ Goals
8%
16.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.1 — our 31% vs market 26.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
19%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
32%
+7.1pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.6pp
33%
Away Win
41%
-7.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.1pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valour EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY HFX Wanderers EU Bookmakers 45%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -32% / -32%
0.96/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/0.70
+11% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -31%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
282 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 79%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
21.1 Crosses 17.1
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valour
2W-0D-4L
AWAY HFX Wanderers
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.70 xG 2.07
48% Ball Possession 52%
7 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
346 Passes 402
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
17 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 2
18.08.2024 Valour Valour 2-1 HT 1-1 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers KAPL
19.07.2024 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers 3-1 HT 2-1 Valour Valour KAPL
20.05.2024 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers 1-2 HT 0-0 Valour Valour CAPL
07.10.2023 Valour Valour 0-1 HT 0-0 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers CAPL
26.08.2023 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers 3-0 HT 0-0 Valour Valour CAPL
10.06.2023 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers 2-0 HT 1-0 Valour Valour CAPL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valour
1-1
AWAY HFX Wanderers
1.90 xG 1.38
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 6
364 Passes 364
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 28
11 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Valour vs HFX Wanderers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valour and HFX Wanderers shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 28% / 33% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Valour had 49% of the ball to HFX Wanderers's 51%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 1.90 to 1.38.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, HFX Wanderers led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Valour and 1.83 for HFX Wanderers.

What was the final score of Valour vs HFX Wanderers?

Valour 1-1 HFX Wanderers in the Kanada - Premier League on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valour vs HFX Wanderers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Valour win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Valour 39%, draw 28%, HFX Wanderers 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Valour), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Valour) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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