Tyumen 1-2 FK Rodina Moskva — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - FNL, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒11:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.17
Draw
31%
3.18
Away
35%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.59
Over 2.5
42%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.99
No
52%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
19%
X/X
18%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
28%
+6.3pp
31%
Draw
28%
+2.5pp
35%
Away Win
44%
-8.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
46%
+2.1pp
52%
BTTS No
54%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tyumen EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Rodina Moskva EU Bookmakers 48%
+7% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +4%
0.74/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/0.76
-30% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +31%
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
245 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tyumen
0W-2D-0L
AWAY FK Rodina Moskva
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
30.04.2024 FK Rodina Moskva FK Rodina Moskva 1-1 HT 1-0 Tyumen Tyumen RUS1
18.09.2023 Tyumen Tyumen 2-2 HT 0-0 FK Rodina Moskva FK Rodina Moskva RUS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tyumen
1-2
AWAY FK Rodina Moskva
47% Ball Possession 53%
7 Total Shots 22
2 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Tyumen vs FK Rodina Moskva
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FK Rodina Moskva edged past Tyumen 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 31% / 35% — and on the day FK Rodina Moskva made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Tyumen had 47% of the ball to FK Rodina Moskva's 53%, shots finished 7-22.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Tyumen and 1.50 for FK Rodina Moskva.

What was the final score of Tyumen vs FK Rodina Moskva?

Tyumen 1-2 FK Rodina Moskva in the Russia - FNL on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tyumen vs FK Rodina Moskva?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tyumen win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Tyumen 35%, draw 31%, FK Rodina Moskva 35%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (35/31/35) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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