Zenit St. Petersburg 3-1 Fakel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 21 Sep 2024

Zenit St. Petersburg
3-1 HT 0-1
Fakel
📅21/09/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Russia - Premier League – 2024/2025

Zenit St. Petersburg vs Fakel Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.22
Draw
22%
5.15
Away
16%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.86
Over 2.5
45%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.95
No
61%
1.35
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.24
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.64
6+ Goals
9%
15.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.24 — our 27% vs market 25.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
41%
1.41
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
34.5
X/1
15%
2.98
X/2
8%
29.0
X/X
11%
7.21
2/1
6%
33.0
2/2
3%
28.5
2/X
6%
34.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
77%
-15.7pp
22%
Draw
16%
+6.3pp
16%
Away Win
6%
+9.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
50%
+5.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
50%
-5.2pp
39%
BTTS Yes
30%
+9.0pp
61%
BTTS No
70%
-9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Zenit St. Petersburg v Fakel — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zenit St. Petersburg EU Bookmakers 82%
Head to Head
AWAY Fakel EU Bookmakers 9%
-2% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
2.23/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/2.53
+5% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -6%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
424 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 73%
35.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.1
20.9 Crosses 9.3
1.6 Yellow Cards 3.0

Zenit St. Petersburg vs Fakel Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Zenit St. Petersburg
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Fakel
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.27 xG 0.49
67% Ball Possession 33%
14 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
518 Passes 154
84% Pass Accuracy 60%
27 Box Touches 11
18 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.07.2024 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 3-0 HT 1-0 Fakel Fakel RUK
06.05.2024 Fakel Fakel 1-1 HT 0-1 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg RUS
13.08.2023 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 2-0 HT 1-0 Fakel Fakel RUS
03.06.2023 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg 1-0 HT 0-0 Fakel Fakel RUS
16.11.2022 Fakel Fakel 0-2 HT 0-0 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg RUK
08.10.2022 Fakel Fakel 1-1 HT 1-1 Zenit St. Petersburg Zenit St. Petersburg RUS

Zenit St. Petersburg 3-1 Fakel — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Zenit St. Petersburg
3-1
AWAY Fakel
1.68 xG 1.06
77% Ball Possession 23%
14 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 2
626 Passes 124
89% Pass Accuracy 61%
30 Box Touches 10
25 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Zenit St. Petersburg vs Fakel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zenit St. Petersburg saw off Fakel 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Zenit St. Petersburg as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Zenit St. Petersburg had 77% of the ball to Fakel's 23%, shots finished 14-6, expected goals 1.68 to 1.06.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Zenit St. Petersburg had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Zenit St. Petersburg and 0.33 for Fakel.

What was the final score of Zenit St. Petersburg vs Fakel?

Zenit St. Petersburg 3-1 Fakel in the Russia - Premier League on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zenit St. Petersburg vs Fakel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Zenit St. Petersburg win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Zenit St. Petersburg 62%, draw 22%, Fakel 16%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Zenit St. Petersburg) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Zenit St. Petersburg) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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