Racing Club Montevideo 1-0 Progreso — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 21 Sep 2024

📅21/09/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.05
Draw
35%
3.11
Away
29%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.78
Over 2.5
38%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.76
No
54%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
10%
1/X
11%
X/1
12%
X/2
7%
X/X
18%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
45%
-8.8pp
35%
Draw
28%
+6.7pp
29%
Away Win
27%
+2.0pp
62%
Under 2.5
52%
+9.8pp
38%
Over 2.5
48%
-9.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.5pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Racing Club Montevideo EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Progreso EU Bookmakers 31%
-2% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / -10%
1.20/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.48
-7% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / -17%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
224 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 4.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Racing Club Montevideo
1W-0D-3L
AWAY Progreso
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
07.07.2024 Progreso Progreso 3-2 HT 2-1 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo URU
10.03.2024 Progreso Progreso 4-3 HT 1-1 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo URU
14.08.2022 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo 2-1 HT 1-0 Progreso Progreso URU2
09.10.2019 Progreso Progreso 2-1 HT 2-0 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Racing Club Montevideo
1-0
AWAY Progreso
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 0
2 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Racing Club Montevideo vs Progreso
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Racing Club Montevideo squeezed past Progreso 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (36% / 35% / 29%) promised a tight game; Racing Club Montevideo found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (62%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Racing Club Montevideo had 46% of the ball to Progreso's 54%, shots finished 9-7.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Progreso led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Racing Club Montevideo and 2.50 for Progreso.

What was the final score of Racing Club Montevideo vs Progreso?

Racing Club Montevideo 1-0 Progreso in the Uruguay - Premier League on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Racing Club Montevideo vs Progreso?

Before kick-off our model rated a Racing Club Montevideo win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Racing Club Montevideo 36%, draw 35%, Progreso 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Racing Club Montevideo), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Racing Club Montevideo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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