IFK Mariehamn 2-1 VPS — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 21 Sep 2025

📅21/09/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
46%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.03
Over 2.5
55%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.61
No
42%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.82
2-3 Goals
47%
1.84
4-5 Goals
24%
3.21
6+ Goals
8%
10.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.25
1/2
7%
24.1
1/X
8%
13.05
X/1
8%
6.35
X/2
17%
5.19
X/X
14%
5.03
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
28.5
2/2
21%
3.11
2/X
5%
12.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 28.5 — our 7% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
34%
-5.4pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.8pp
45%
Away Win
41%
+4.5pp
45%
Under 2.5
45%
-0.0pp
55%
Over 2.5
55%
+0.0pp
58%
BTTS Yes
58%
+0.1pp
42%
BTTS No
42%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME IFK Mariehamn EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY VPS EU Bookmakers 45%
-4% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +5%
1.38/1.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.03
-19% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / +5%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
316 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 80%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.4
18.6 Crosses 19.6
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME IFK Mariehamn
0W-2D-4L
AWAY VPS
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.05 xG 1.30
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
310 Passes 332
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 26
23 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.08.2025 VPS VPS 1-1 HT 0-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
14.06.2025 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-5 HT 0-1 VPS VPS FİN
28.07.2024 VPS VPS 2-1 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
12.06.2024 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 0-0 HT 0-0 VPS VPS FİN
03.09.2023 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-2 HT 1-2 VPS VPS FİN
05.05.2023 VPS VPS 2-1 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME IFK Mariehamn
2-1
AWAY VPS
1.19 xG 1.36
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 7
311 Passes 388
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
24 Box Touches 34
10 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH IFK Mariehamn vs VPS
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

IFK Mariehamn squeezed past VPS 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was VPS at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, IFK Mariehamn had 45% of the ball to VPS's 55%, shots finished 10-13, expected goals 1.19 to 1.36.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, VPS led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for IFK Mariehamn and 2.00 for VPS.

What was the final score of IFK Mariehamn vs VPS?

IFK Mariehamn 2-1 VPS in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 21/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for IFK Mariehamn vs VPS?

Before kick-off our model rated an VPS win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split IFK Mariehamn 28%, draw 26%, VPS 45%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (VPS) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (VPS) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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