Celoricense 1-0 Mafra — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 21 Sep 2025

📅21/09/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
4.13
Draw
21%
3.54
Away
50%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.8
Over 2.5
53%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.9
No
44%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
24%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
20%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
21%
+7.5pp
21%
Draw
25%
-3.5pp
50%
Away Win
54%
-4.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
52%
-5.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
48%
+5.1pp
56%
BTTS Yes
49%
+6.9pp
44%
BTTS No
51%
-6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Celoricense EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Mafra EU Bookmakers 58%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +22% / +22%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -47% /
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
238 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 402 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Celoricense
1-0
AWAY Mafra
39% Ball Possession 61%
8 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Celoricense vs Mafra
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Celoricense squeezed past Mafra 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Mafra at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Celoricense had 39% of the ball to Mafra's 61%, shots finished 8-11.

What was the final score of Celoricense vs Mafra?

Celoricense 1-0 Mafra in the Portugal - Cup on 21/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Celoricense vs Mafra?

Before kick-off our model rated an Mafra win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Celoricense 28%, draw 21%, Mafra 50%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Mafra) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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