Lusitano Évora 1911 1-0 FC Serpa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 21 Sep 2025

📅21/09/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.53
Draw
19%
3.94
Away
22%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.91
Over 2.5
52%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.95
No
48%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
4%
1/X
3%
X/1
30%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
61%
-2.6pp
19%
Draw
22%
-3.0pp
22%
Away Win
17%
+5.7pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
47%
+4.8pp
48%
BTTS No
53%
-4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lusitano Évora 1911 EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Serpa EU Bookmakers 20%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
408 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lusitano Évora 1911
1-0
AWAY FC Serpa
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lusitano Évora 1911 vs FC Serpa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lusitano Évora 1911 edged past FC Serpa 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lusitano Évora 1911 as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Lusitano Évora 1911 had 59% of the ball to FC Serpa's 41%, shots finished 13-6.

What was the final score of Lusitano Évora 1911 vs FC Serpa?

Lusitano Évora 1911 1-0 FC Serpa in the Portugal - Cup on 21/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lusitano Évora 1911 vs FC Serpa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lusitano Évora 1911 win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Lusitano Évora 1911 59%, draw 19%, FC Serpa 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lusitano Évora 1911) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lusitano Évora 1911) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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