Monçao 1-3 UD Oliveirense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 21 Sep 2025

Monçao
1-3 HT 1-0
UD Oliveirense
📅21/09/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-3 ✓
Portugal - Cup – 2025/2026

Monçao vs UD Oliveirense Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
12.23
Draw
15%
4.81
Away
66%
1.28
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.1
Over 2.5
59%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
2.27
No
47%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
17%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
8%
X/2
21%
X/X
6%
2/1
5%
2/2
37%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
6%
+13.2pp
15%
Draw
19%
-3.9pp
66%
Away Win
75%
-9.2pp
41%
Under 2.5
44%
-2.4pp
59%
Over 2.5
56%
+2.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
40%
+12.6pp
47%
BTTS No
60%
-12.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Monçao v UD Oliveirense — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monçao EU Bookmakers 8%
Head to Head
AWAY UD Oliveirense EU Bookmakers 78%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.25/0.58
+40% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +26%
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
250 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 493 · 85%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards 2.8
POST-MATCH Monçao vs UD Oliveirense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

UD Oliveirense beat Monçao 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had UD Oliveirense as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

What was the final score of Monçao vs UD Oliveirense?

Monçao 1-3 UD Oliveirense in the Portugal - Cup on 21/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monçao vs UD Oliveirense?

Before kick-off our model rated an UD Oliveirense win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Monçao 20%, draw 15%, UD Oliveirense 66%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (UD Oliveirense), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (UD Oliveirense) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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